The upstream sector is set to carry strong momentum into 2026, with high-impact wildcat drilling activity expected to remain elevated following a solid 2025. Last year, the success rate for high-impact wildcat wells rose to 38% from 23% in 2024, while total discovered volumes increased by 53% year on year to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), according to Rystad Energy’s research and analysis.
Wells are designated as high-impact based on a variety of factors: the size of the potential resources, whether they could open new hydrocarbon plays in frontier or emerging basins, and their significance to the operator. Such activity in 2026 is expected to drive exploration momentum higher in specific basins and countries, with 42 such wells identified globally. Africa is set to continue leading global activity, accounting for around 40% of planned high-impact exploration wells, driven largely along the Atlantic margin, with exploration expected to focus on the Orange Basin in Southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, reinforcing the region’s role in global high-impact drilling.
Rystad Energy’s high-impact well outlook for 2026 points to a clear concentration in ultra-deepwater and frontier exploration. Ultra-deepwater wells account for around 60% of planned drilling, with majors leading these activities, followed by national oil companies (NOCs) and international NOCs (INOCs), which together represent 26%. Most wells are expected to target frontier regions, while roughly 5% will focus on basins with prior discoveries that could develop into hydrocarbon hotspots, and another 5% will test entirely new plays. Africa is set to play a central role, with all onshore high-impact drilling in 2026 expected to take place on the continent except for the recently announced Greenland well, which will test the frontier Jameson Land.
'What we are seeing in 2026 is a clear shift in where operators are willing to deploy capital. Ultra-deepwater and frontier plays remain capital-intensive, but they also offer scale and material upside at a time when conventional opportunities are increasingly limited. Africa stands out because it still combines geological potential with the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries, particularly for operators looking to secure long-life resources in a tightening global supply environment', said Aatisha Mahajan, Head of Exploration, Oil & Gas Research, Rystad Energy.
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Source: Rystad Energy
