The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP’s (bp) current estimates and expectations for the first quarter of 2025, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.
The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the first quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those results. Also refer to bp’s fourth quarter and full year 2024 group results announcement on 11 February 2025 for first quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary.
bp’s group results for the first quarter 2025 are expected to be published on 29 April 2025.
Updated 1Q25 guidance(a)
- Reported upstream productionb in the first quarter(b) is expected to be lower compared to the prior quarter, with production slightly higher in oil production & operations and lower in gas & low carbon energy including the already announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad completed towards the end of prior quarter.
- In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to be broadly flat including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be weak.
- In the oil production & operations segment, realizationsc, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to be broadly flat including the impact of price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.
- In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be impacted by the following factors:
- customers – lower costs and stronger midstream performance, partly offset by seasonally lower volumes.
- products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of $0.1 - 0.3 billion and a lower impact from turnaround activity. The oil trading result is expected to be average.
- Other items:
- Net debt at the end of the first quarter is expected to be around $4 billion higher compared to the fourth quarter. This is driven primarily by a working capital build, which is largely expected to reverse, reflecting seasonal inventory effects, timing of payments including annual bonus payments and payments related to low carbon assets held for sale.
- The underlying effective tax rate for the first quarter is expected to be around 50%, which reflects the geographical mix of profits.
a All impacts influence bp’s underlying RC profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.
b Includes bp’s share of production of equity-accounted entities.
c Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries only – this excludes equity-accounted entities.
Trading conditions
Brent averaged $75.73/bbl in the first quarter 2025 compared to $74.73/bbl in the fourth quarter 2024.
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.65/mmBtu in the first quarter 2025 compared to $2.79/mmBtu in the fourth quarter 2024.
The bp RMM* averaged $15.2/bbl in the first quarter 2025 compared to $13.1/bbl in the fourth quarter 2024.
Further information on prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Source: bp
