bp has announced a trading statement providing a summary of bp's current estimates and expectations for the first quarter of 2026, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period. The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the first quarter 2026 and is not an estimate of those results.
Also refer to bp’s fourth quarter and full year 2025 group results announcement on 10 February 2026 for first quarter and full year 2026 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary. See the Glossary for a definition of guidance items included in this Trading Statement.
bp’s group results for the first quarter 2026 are scheduled to be published on 28 April 2026.
Updated 1Q26 guidance
These estimates and expectations include impacts associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the current market conditions resulting in heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter. These market conditions are expected to impact financial results, including trading results and working capital movements, increase the dislocation between marker prices versus actual prices realized by bp in 1Q 2026, and increase the impact of price lags(a).
Earnings considerations for 1Q 2026 underlying RC profit before interest and tax, relative to 4Q 2025:
- Reported upstream production in the first quarter is expected to be broadly flat compared to the fourth quarter 2025 (2,344 mboe/d). Within this,
- gas & low carbon energy is expected to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter 2025 (788 mboe/d).
- oil production & operations is expected to be slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter 2025 (1,555 mboe/d) including price impacts on PSA and TSC entitlement volumes.
- Gas & low carbon energy segment: realizations are expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter. These include the impact of price lagsa and the changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average (fourth quarter 2025 average).
- Oil production & operations segment: realizations are expected to have an impact compared to the prior quarter in the range of +$0.1 to 0.2 billion. These include the significant impact of the price lagsa on bp’s production, particularly in the Gulf of America and the UAE where production is priced on one and two month lagged basis respectively. Compared to the prior quarter, reflecting production mix, cash costs are $0.1 billion higher and DD&A charge is broadly flat (fourth quarter 2025 $2.0 billion) due to a higher unit charge.
- Customers & products segment: compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to reflect the following factors:
- customers – seasonally lower volumes and lower retail fuels margins, more than offset by stronger midstream performance.
- products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of +$0.1 to 0.2 billion and a lower impact from turnaround activity. The oil trading result is expected to be exceptional (fourth quarter 2025 weak).
Other financial considerations for 1Q 2026
- The group underlying effective tax rate for the first quarter is expected to be around 35%, reflecting the higher results in products.
- Capital expenditure in the first quarter is expected to be broadly flat with the organic capital expenditure in the fourth quarter 2025 ($3.5 billion).
- Net debt at the end of the first quarter is expected to be in the range of $25 to 27 billion compared to the end of the fourth quarter 2025 ($22.2 billion). This is driven primarily by a significant working capital build in the range of $4 to 7 billion, largely due to the price environment.
(a) See Trading conditions and rules of thumb section below.
Underlying replacement cost (RC) profit before interest and tax, underlying effective tax rate, organic capital expenditure, net debt, working capital (after adjusting for inventory holding gains, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items) and underlying operating expenditure are non-IFRS measures.
Trading conditions and rules of thumb
The marker prices and margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realized by bp during the given periods.
- Brent averaged $81.13/bbl in the first quarter 2026 compared to $63.73/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025.
- US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $5.05/mmBtu in the first quarter 2026 compared to $3.55/mmBtu in the fourth quarter 2025.
- The bp RIM averaged $16.9/bbl in the first quarter 2026 compared to $15.2/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025.
Rules of thumb below are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on bp's 2026 full-year pre-tax results. These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon bp’s current portfolio of oil and gas businesses. The weighting of the rules of thumb for Brent and Henry Hub is an approximate split of 80% to oil production & operations and 20% to gas & low carbon energy.
The relationship between prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil and gas prices. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, hedge positions and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results. Hedging activity impacts the Henry Hub rule of thumb and as a result should not be treated as representative of the longer-term sensitivity.
Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of oil and gas revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels.
The bp Refining Indicator Margin rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group’s results to changes in refining margins. However, actual margins realized by bp may vary due to a variety of factors, including the actual mix of a crude and product for a given quarter. Under the current market conditions, and resulting heightened volatility in commodity and refined product prices, crude differentials, transportation costs and product mix may vary significantly. See Refining Indicator Margin link for more information.
Further information on prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Source: bp
