The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP’s current estimates and expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.
The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the fourth quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those results. Also refer to bp’s third quarter 2025 group results announcement on 4 November 2025 for fourth quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary.
bp’s group results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 are expected to be published on 10 February 2026.
Updated 4Q25 guidance (a)
- Reported upstream productionb in the fourth quarter is expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter, with production broadly flat in oil production & operations and lower in gas & low carbon energy.
- In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of $(0.1) to (0.3) billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average.
- In the oil production & operations segment, realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of $(0.2) to (0.4) billion including the impact of the price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.
- In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:
- customers – seasonally lower volumes and broadly flat fuels margins.
- products – stronger realized refining margins of around $0.1 billion, offset by a higher impact from turnaround activity and the temporary impact of reduced capacity following a fire at the Whiting refinery. The oil trading result is expected to be weak.
- Other items:
- The fourth quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to impairments, including impairments within our equity-accounted entities, in the range of $(4) to (5) billion, primarily related to our transition businesses. These charges are primarily attributable to the gas and low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.
- Net debt at the end of the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $22 to 23 billion compared to $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. This includes proceeds received from divestments of around $3.5 billion, bringing the full year amount to around $5.3 billion compared to the previous guidance of above $4 billion.
Updated FY25 guidance(a)
- The underlying effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be around 42% compared to the previous guidance of around 40% primarily due to changes in the geographical mix of profits.
a All impacts influence bp’s underlying RC profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.
b Includes bp’s share of production of equity-accounted entities.
c Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries only – this excludes equity-accounted entities.
Trading conditions
Brent averaged $63.73/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $69.13/bbl in the third quarter 2025.
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.55/mmBtu in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $3.07/mmBtu in the third quarter 2025.
The bp RIM* averaged $15.2/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $15.8/bbl in the third quarter 2025.
Further information on prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Source: bp
