The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP’s current estimates and expectations for the second quarter of 2024, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.
The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the second quarter 2024 and is not an estimate of those results. Also refer to bp’s first quarter 2024 group results announcement on 7 May 2024 for guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary.
bp’s group results for the second quarter 2024 are expected to be published on 30 July 2024
Updated 2Q24 guidance(a)
- Upstream production(b) in the second quarter is now expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter, with production broadly flat in oil production & operations and slightly lower in gas & low carbon energy.
- In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an adverse impact of around $0.1 billion, including declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average following a strong result in the first quarter.
- In the oil production & operations segment, realizationsc, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have a favourable impact in the range of $0.1 - 0.3 billion, including the impact of price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE.
- In the customers and products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be impacted by the following factors:
- customers – stronger fuels margins and convenience performance, and seasonally higher volumes.
- products – significantly lower realized refining margins, expected to have an adverse impact in the range of $0.5 - 0.7 billion mainly relating to weaker middle distillate margins and narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials, and a higher level of turnaround activity, partially offset by the absence of the first quarter Whiting refinery outage of around $0.5 billion. The oil trading result is expected to be weak following a strong result in the first quarter.
- Other items: The second quarter results are expected to include post tax adverse adjusting items relating to asset impairments and associated onerous contract provisions in the range of $1.0 - 2.0 billion. This includes charges relating to the ongoing review of our Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany that was announced in March.
a. All mpacts influence bp's underlying RC profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.
b. Includes bp's share of production of equity-accounted entities.
c. Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries only - this excludes equity-accounted entities.
Trading conditions
Brent averaged $84.97/bbl in the second quarter 2024 compared to $83.16/bbl in the first quarter 2024.
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $1.89/mmBtu in the second quarter compared to $2.25/mmBtu in the first quarter 2024.
The bp refining marker margin averaged $20.6/bbl in the second quarter compared to $20.6/bbl in the first quarter 2024.
Further information on prices and bp's current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Source: BP
