bp's Trading Statement provides a summary of current estimates and expectations for the second quarter of 2025, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.
The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the second quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those results. Also refer to bp’s first quarter 2025 group results announcement on 29 April 2025 for second quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary.
bp’s group results for the second quarter 2025 are expected to be published on 5 August 2025.
Updated 2Q25 guidance(a)
- Reported upstream production(b) in the second quarter is now expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter, with production higher in oil production & operations, primarily in bpx energy, and slightly higher in gas & low carbon energy.
- In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of $(0.1) to (0.3) billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average.
- In the oil production & operations segment, realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of $(0.6) to (0.8) billion, including the production mix effects and the price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.
- In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:
- customers – seasonally higher volumes and stronger fuels margins.
- products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of $0.3 to 0.5 billion. There was a significantly higher level of turnaround activity. The oil trading result is expected to be strong.
- Other items:
- Net debt at the end of the second quarter is expected to be slightly lower compared to the end of the first quarter.
- In other businesses & corporate, the underlying charge is expected to be similar to the prior quarter.
- The second quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to asset impairments in the range of $0.5 to 1.5 billion, attributable across the segments. These items are treated as adjusting items and excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.
Trading conditions
Brent averaged $67.88/bbl in the second quarter 2025 compared to $75.73/bbl in the first quarter 2025.
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.44/mmBtu in the second quarter 2025 compared to $3.65/mmBtu in the first quarter 2025.
The bp RMM* averaged $21.1/bbl in the second quarter 2025 compared to $15.2/bbl in the first quarter 2025.
WTI CMA* vs WCS, lagged 1 month averaged $10.01/bbl in the second quarter 2025 compared to $13.03/bbl in the first quarter 2025.
Further information on prices and bp's current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Source: bp
