The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP’s current estimates and expectations for the third quarter of 2025, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.
The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the third quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those results. Also refer to bp’s second quarter 2025 group results announcement on 5 August 2025 for third quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary.
bp’s group results for the third quarter 2025 are expected to be published on 4 November 2025.
Updated 3Q25 guidance(a)
- Reported upstream production(b) in the third quarter is now expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter, with production higher in both oil production & operations, primarily higher gas production in bpx energy, and in gas & low carbon energy.
- In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizationsc, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of around $(0.1) billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average.
- In the oil production & operations segment, realizationsc, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to be broadly flat, including the impact of the price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE. Compared to the prior quarter, exploration write-offs are expected to be around $(0.1) billion higher.
- In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:
- customers – seasonally higher volumes with broadly flat fuels margins.
- products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of $0.3 to 0.4 billion and a significantly lower level of turnaround activity, partly offset by seasonal effects of environmental compliance costs and the impact of unplanned Whiting outage due to exceptional weather conditions. The oil trading result is expected to be weak.
- Other items:
- The third quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to asset impairments in the range of $0.2 to $0.5 billion, attributable across the segments. These items are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.
- Net debt at the end of the third quarter is expected to be broadly flat compared to the end of the second quarter at around $26 billion including the impact of the redemption of $1.2 billion perpetual hybrid bonds on 1 September as planned, higher income taxes paid of around $1 billion and a working capital release.
a All impacts influence bp’s underlying RC profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.
b Includes bp’s share of production of equity-accounted entities.
c Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries only – this excludes equity-accounted entities.
Trading conditions
Brent averaged $69.13/bbl in the third quarter 2025 compared to $67.88/bbl in the second quarter 2025.
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.07/mmBtu in the third quarter 2025 compared to $3.44/mmBtu in the second quarter 2025.
The bp RIM* averaged $15.8/bbl in the third quarter 2025 compared to $11.9/bbl in the second quarter 2025.
Further information on prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Source: bp
