The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.’s (bp) current estimates and expectations for the third quarter of 2026, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period. The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the third quarter 2026 and is not an estimate of those results.
Also refer to bp’s second quarter 2026 group results announcement on 4 August 2026 for third quarter and full year 2026 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary. See the Glossary for a definition of guidance items included in this Trading Statement.
bp’s group results for the third quarter 2026 are scheduled to be published on 30 October 2026.
bp will host a strategy and outlook update on 15 December 2026 in New York City. bp’s financial calendar is available at bp.com/financialcalendar.
Updated 3Q 2026 guidance
Earnings considerations for 3Q 2026 underlying RC profit before interest and tax, relative to 2Q 2026:
-
Reported upstream production in the third quarter is expected to be 2,190 to 2,240mboe/d (2Q 2026: 2,201mboe/d), mainly reflecting seasonal maintenance recovery partly offset by bp’s reduced equity interest in Latin America. Third quarter includes the impact of continued disruption in the Middle East and no impact from weather events in the Gulf of America. Within this,
-
gas & low carbon energy is expected to be 775 to 795mboe/d (2Q 2026: 765mboe/d).
-
oil production & operations is expected to be 1,415 to 1,445mboe/d (2Q 2026: 1,436mboe/d).
-
-
Gas & low carbon energy segment: realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of +$0.1 to 0.3 billion, including the impact of changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas markers. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be significantly higher compared with the second quarter.
-
Oil production & operations segment: realizations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of $(0.2) to (0.4) billion including the impact of changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas markers. Exploration write-offs are expected to be significantly lower due to the prior quarter impact of the Bay Du Nord sale. DD&A is expected to be slightly higher due to a change in production mix. Prior quarter equity accounted earnings benefited from higher contributions in Latin America, which are not expected to repeat in the third quarter.
-
Customers & products segment: compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to reflect the following factors:
-
customers – significantly lower result, driven by weaker fuels margins and higher base oil prices in Castrol, as well as a lower contribution from midstream, partly offset by slightly higher volumes due to seasonal effects.
-
products – stronger realized refining margins in the range of +$1.9 to 2.1 billion. We expect throughput of 1,375 to 1,405mb/d (2Q 2026: 1,467mb/d), reflecting the completion of the Gelsenkirchen divestment on 31 July and a lower planned turnaround and maintenance activity. The oil trading result is expected to be broadly flat compared with the second quarter.
-
Other financial considerations for 3Q 2026
-
The group underlying effective tax rate for the third quarter is expected to be around 30%, due to the geographical mix of profits. We will provide updated full year ETR guidance within our third quarter results.
-
Net debt at the end of the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $13.5 to 14.5 billion (2Q 2026: $22.3 billion). This reduction includes:
-
the redemption of $1.0 billion of hybrid securities on 30 September 2026. Remaining hybrid bonds and securities are expected to be around $12.0 billion at 3Q 2026 (2Q 2026: $13.0 billion);
-
higher income taxes paid of around $1.0 billion;
-
working capital release in the range of $0 to 1.0 billion; and;
-
capital expenditure of around $3.0 billion
-
As a result, we expect the total of net debt, hybrid bonds, leases and Gulf of America settlement liabilities to reduce by around $9.0 to 10.0 billion compared with the second quarter.
-
The third quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to impairments in the range of $3.0 to 4.5 billion. These charges are primarily attributable to transition businesses in the gas & low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.
Underlying replacement cost (RC) profit before interest and tax, underlying effective tax rate, net debt, and working capital (after adjusting for inventory holding gains or losses, fair value accounting effects and other adjusting items) are non-IFRS measures.
Trading conditions and rules of thumb
The marker prices and margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realized by bp during the given periods.
-
Brent averaged $96.99/bbl in the third quarter 2026 compared to $103.85/bbl in the second quarter 2026.
-
US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $2.96/mmBtu in the third quarter 2026 compared to $2.90/mmBtu in the second quarter 2026.
-
The bp RIM averaged $46.7/bbl in the third quarter 2026 compared to $29.6/bbl in the second quarter 2026.
Rules of thumb below are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on bp's 2026 full-year pre-tax results. These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon bp’s current portfolio of oil and gas businesses. The weighting of the rules of thumb for Brent and Henry Hub is an approximate split of 80% to oil production & operations and 20% to gas & low carbon energy.
The relationship between prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil and gas prices. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, hedge positions and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results. Hedging activity impacts the Henry Hub rule of thumb and as a result should not be treated as representative of the longer-term sensitivity.
Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of oil and gas revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels.
The bp Refining Indicator Margin rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group’s results to changes in refining margins. However, actual margins realized by bp may vary due to a variety of factors, including the actual mix of a crude and product for a given quarter. Under the current market conditions, and resulting heightened volatility in commodity and refined product prices, crude differentials, transportation costs and product mix may vary significantly. See Refining Indicator Margin link for more information.
Further information on prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be found at the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
Click here for full announcement
Source: bp
