A string of global shocks has likely put 2030 emissions reduction targets out of reach. But with decisive action, there is still time to reach net zero emissions by 2050, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook report, a milestone assessment of the global journey towards a lower carbon future.
The new report analyses four different pathways for the energy and natural resources sector – Wood Mackenzie’s base case (2.5-degrees), country pledges scenario (2-degrees), net zero 2050 scenario (1.5-degrees) and delayed transition scenario (3-degrees).*
KEY FINDINGS:
- US$78 trillion of cumulative investment required across power supply, grid infrastructure, critical minerals and emerging technologies and upstream to meet Paris Agreement goals.
- Globally, energy demand is growing strongly due to rising incomes, population and the emergence of new sources of demand, including data centres and transport electrification.
- Strong renewables growth is a certainty and this will continue under all scenarios modelled in this update. Renewables capacity grows two-fold by 2030 in the base case, short of the global pledge made at COP28 to triple renewables by 2030.
- Oil and gas are projected to continue playing a role in the global energy system to 2050.
- Innovation will improve the commerciality of carbon capture and low-carbon hydrogen and derivatives, driving uptake to 6 Btpa and 0.45 Btpa by 2050.
- Policy certainty crucial to helping unlock demand for new technologies and increases capital flow into all segments, including supply chains and critical minerals.
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Source: Wood Mackenzie
