The IEA Mid-Year Update sees higher natural gas prices spurring a shift towards coal in some regions in 2026, with the Strait of Hormuz situation key for the 2027 outlook
Energy market disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East are pushing global coal demand higher this year as sharp rises in natural gas prices prompt countries to turn to alternative sources, according to the IEA’s latest update on the coal sector.
Although virtually no coal shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz – as the Middle East is neither a major producer nor consumer of coal – disruptions associated with the war have nonetheless affected coal markets by driving up natural gas prices due to the huge drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait. This has encouraged higher electricity generation from coal in countries that have gas-fired power fleets and spare coal capacity, the IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update 2026 finds. These dynamics have contributed to higher coal use in Europe, Japan, Korea, China and other markets than previously expected.
China has also increased its consumption of coal for producing chemical products due to high oil prices. Additionally, expectations for a particularly strong El Niño weather pattern this year are set to support coal demand in some major consuming countries in Asia, including India and Viet Nam, due to higher cooling needs and lower hydropower output.
As a result, global coal demand – which had been set to decline slightly year-over-year – is now forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026, bringing the world’s consumption to a record 8.94 billion tonnes.
The picture could shift again in 2027, although significant uncertainty remains about the outlook, according to the report. Much depends on whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers: if LNG flows through the Strait rebound and natural gas prices decline back towards pre-war levels, global coal demand could decrease in 2027, but if the Strait remains largely closed to LNG shipments, coal demand could increase further.
After reaching a record high in 2025, global coal production is expected to decline in 2026, although it is set to remain above 9 billion tonnes for a third consecutive year. This reflects a decline in output in China – the world’s biggest producer – following safety inspections triggered by a major mine accident in May, which has resulted in a significant reduction of coal production since then. As the gap between production and consumption has narrowed, the large global build-up of coal inventories seen in recent years is expected to ease. In 2027, coal output worldwide is set to rise slightly as production in China rebounds.
Meanwhile, the report sees demand for coal in international markets rising above previous expectations amid lower domestic output in China and higher demand from import-dependent countries such as Japan and Korea, where coal use has risen following the rise in natural gas prices. Together, these factors – along with tight supply – are contributing to higher coal prices around the world.
Source: IEA
