Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, an increase of around 65% from 2025 levels(1), according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026, as countries continue to prioritise flexible and reliable energy security offered by gas and LNG.
A total of 422 million tonnes of LNG was traded in 2025 and this was expected to increase significantly in 2026. However, severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shut in around one fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply since the conflict started, pushing up prices on the spot market and adversely affecting some countries in Asia.
The ramp up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants and slower Asian imports of LNG have partially offset the impact of reduced supply from the Middle East. As a result, total LNG trade in 2026 could be similar to last year if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal this summer, before returning to growth in 2027.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell. “While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system.”
Supply growth on the way
About 180 million tonnes of annual new supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, improving the availability and affordability of gas and opening up demand in new markets.
However, the ability to benefit from new supply will depend on the availability of infrastructure in importing countries, including regasification capacity and pipeline connectivity, especially in South and Southeast Asia.
Forecasts show that those regions will account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 to meet rapidly growing demand for energy with lower emissions than coal. In more mature Asian markets such as Japan, data centres are emerging as a new source of power demand.
Emerging segments of demand are also growing rapidly. According to forecasts, LNG bunkering will grow seven-fold to 27 million tonnes by 2035, more than the amount of LNG imported by India last year.
LNG will continue to have a vital role to deliver energy security to Europe, to balance intermittent renewables as domestic gas production declines.
To meet the growing demand, significant additional investment will be needed in new LNG liquefaction plants through the 2030s and 2040s, with around 200 million tonnes a year of new supply needed, in addition to projects already under construction.
A more resilient market
Although spot prices of LNG in Asia increased to more than $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the peak of the Middle East crisis, they remained significantly lower than in 2022 when gas supplies were disrupted following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reflecting the greater resilience of the LNG market now.
With long-term supply agreements accounting for around two thirds of total LNG trade, the average price that buyers paid for LNG in May was around $11-12 per MMBtu, compared to $7-11 in January before the conflict began.
10 years of Shell’s LNG Outlook
Shell’s LNG Outlook is now in its 10th year. Since its first publication in 2017:
- Global LNG trade has increased by around 60%, from 264 million to 428 million tonnes
- China’s LNG imports have risen by about 250%
- The number of LNG-importing countries has grown from 36 to 49
- The number of LNG-fuelled ships has increased from 77 to over 800
(1)This is calculated using the median figure of the forecasts, 695 MT, we have used for LNG demand by 2050. The range is between 610 and 780 million tonnes a year. Based on 2025 total trade, this is forecast growth of around 65%. These are the same forecast figures that were used in Shell’s Strategic Spotlight on LNG (PDF, 24 MB) published in March this year.
Source: Shell
