Research reveals that less than a fifth of the EU’s hydrogen pipeline may come online by 2030 without urgently addressing three critical areas: policy frameworks, funding mechanisms, and demand-side mandates.
New data from Westwood Global Energy Group, the specialist energy market research and consultancy firm, reports that, despite significant ambitions and substantial funding commitments, Europe is unlikely to meet its 2030 hydrogen production targets. Its research reveals only 17% of the EU’s planned project pipeline is expected to materialise without market intervention.
The analysis points to a European pipeline under strain, as regulatory delays, elevated costs and weak demand weigh heavily on progress – with 23 hydrogen projects totalling 29.2 GW(LHV) already stalled or cancelled by the close of 2024. The UK market presents a similar story, with Westwood estimating a potential delivery range of just 1% to 24% of its pipeline by 2030, underlining the sizable policy, funding and mandate shortfall.
Jun Sasamura, Hydrogen Manager at Westwood comments: 'The gap between ambition and reality in Europe’s hydrogen sector is widening. While targets are necessary, they will remain out of reach unless the policy landscape evolves. For the UK in particular, without sharper coordination and a clearer demand-side focussed approach, there is a potential risk of falling behind.'
Despite the stark outlook, the research, which builds on Westwood's Hydrogen Project Certainty Assessment tool, also outlines a best-case scenario for the market, where 70% of the current EU pipeline could materialise if planned frameworks are effectively developed and implemented. In this scenario, the EU could reach its 2030 production targets, underscoring the importance of effective progress.
David Linden, Head of Energy Transition at Westwood, adds: 'While it is easy to focus on the challenges, we should acknowledge that delivering 17% (12 GW(LHV)) of the EU’s pipeline still represents substantial progress. European governments are increasingly adopting a more realistic perspective on hydrogen’s role in the economy. Governments must now act decisively on the three critical areas that we have identified to ensure continued progress.'
Westwood’s full white paper, Europe’s Hydrogen Future: How much is realistically achievable? is available to download here.
Source: Westwood Global Energy Group
