The state's net cash flow from petroleum activities is estimated to be 664 billion NOK in 2025. The estimate for 2026 is approximately 521 billion NOK.
'The revenues from the petroleum industry are very large and important for financing our welfare state. The revenues in 2025 provides a basis for public spending of close to 20 billion NOK every year going forward. The way we manage the revenues ensures that they benefit both current and future generations,’ said Minister of Energy Terje Aasland.
Total Norwegian petroleum production is estimated to 238 million standard cubic meters (Sm3) of oil equivalents in 2025. The estimate is approximately 1.3 per cent lower than in 2024, when the petroleum production on the Norwegian continental shelf reached the highest level since 2008. Over the next few years, production is expected to remain at a stable, high level before it is expected to decline throughout the 2030s as fields are depleting. Without continued exploration and investment in discoveries and existing fields, oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf will decline significantly.
'Norwegian petroleum production plays an important role in ensuring energy security in Europe. The world and Europe will have a need for oil and gas for decades to come, and it is therefore crucial that Norway continue to develop the Norwegian continental shelf to persist as a stable and long-term supplier of energy. Therefore, the government wants to ensure stable and predictable regulatory framework, and a high level of exploration activity,’ said Aasland.
Large investments on the Norwegian continental shelf
Ongoing construction and development projects have the last few years contributed to a high level of activity and large investments on the continental shelf. The investments in the petroleum industry are estimated to be approximately 272 billion NOK in 2025 in the National budget, which corresponds to 23 per cent of the total investments in Norway. Over time, as the ongoing larger projects are completed, the investments are expected to decrease. It is especially expected decreased demand in the segments of the supply industry that are oriented towards standalone developments.
To uphold the activity going forward, it is necessary with new investments sanctions. A stable level of the activity is important to ensure that the competence in the supply industry is maintained and enhanced. Without a continued demand from the petroleum industry, Norway risks losing this important competence.
’The supply industry needs new projects going forward to sustain value creation, competence and employment in Norway. To do so, it is crucial with new developments which the supply industry can compete for. The government facilitates continued exploration, increased extraction and development of discoveries though stable and predictable regulatory framework. We will develop, not dismantle, the activity on the Norwegian continental shelf,’ said Aasland.
Source: Government.no
