'Countdown to ‘make or break’ time'
North East of Scotland has less than five years to secure a positive energy future - New RGU report
A new report from the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University (RGU) is calling for action to address the ever-narrowing window of opportunity to turn the UK's energy transition into a generational economic opportunity for the North East of Scotland.
Delivering Positive Energy identifies the next five years as a make-or-break period in which the reduction of the region's oil and gas workforce needs to be matched by growth in offshore renewables employment.
The report highlights that success can position the region to capitalise fully on emerging renewables opportunities in national and international markets and reinvent itself as a new-look, multi-energy hub for the North Sea cluster of countries focused on the energy transition.
The report also sets out the consequences of less favourable outcomes. In a scenario where an accelerated decline in oil and gas activity is not matched by sufficient growth in offshore renewables, the consequences are stark.
The region risks losing a skilled workforce, an erosion of supply chain capacity and a weakening of its wider economy. Critically, once lost, these capabilities are not easily rebuilt, representing a permanent reduction in the UK's ability to deliver the complex offshore energy projects that its own energy transition depends on.
The report finds:
- The North East of Scotland has competitive advantages to sustain itself as world-class multi-energy hub, including a highly skilled workforce, established supply chain, relatively low commercial rents and house prices, strong transport links, and a proven energy ecosystem
- Prevention of regional offshore energy job losses should be prioritised over impact mitigations
- ‘Goldilocks zone’ window in the next five years, during which the oil and gas workforce decline must be matched by renewables growth to avoid a permanent skills and capabilities loss
- The North East of Scotland hosts around 1 in 3 of the UK’s 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and around 1 in 4 of the UK’s 154,000 offshore energy jobs (2024)
- Around 90% of the regional offshore energy workforce is employed in oil and gas; the remaining 10% in renewables (2024)
- The offshore energy sector workforce in the region reduced by c. 14,000 from around 56,000 in 2016 to close to 42,200 in 2024. The figure of 42,200 represents close to 1 in 6 of the region’s working population
- Depending on future regional energy investment and activities, the regional offshore energy workforce could reduce by a further 18,000 to approximately 24,400 by 2035, equivalent to around 1,600 jobs per year (on average)
- Regional offshore energy salaries are typically up to 2 times higher than average income levels in the North East of Scotland. Replacing the economic value of each lost offshore energy role would require multiple job creations elsewhere in the economy
- With the right policy framework, decisions and sustained investor confidence, there are viable pathways to manage a transition that sustains regional jobs and economic activity
The report, part-funded by Scottish Enterprise, says successfully navigating the 'Goldilocks zone', in which the oil and gas workforce reduction is matched by renewables growth, avoids the permanent loss of local skills and protects the skills and supply chain built over more than half a century of North Sea activity.
Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University, said: 'A picture is now clearly developing of how the one-time oil capital of Europe has a genuine opportunity to redefine itself and reaffirm its status as a global centre of energy excellence. The workers who helped build one of the world's most productive offshore basins have the skills to power its next chapter. It should give rise to a sense of cautious optimism, but the question is whether the conditions are put in place quickly enough for that to happen.
European offshore wind ambitions will require the construction and installation of around 17,000 turbines and associated infrastructure between now and 2050, the equivalent of two new turbines every day for the next 25 years. The UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium are expected to deliver the bulk of the European 300 GW offshore wind target, and much of that activity falls within the natural catchment of the North East of Scotland.'
Professor de Leeuw said: 'The workforce and supply chain who built and maintained the North Sea infrastructure are, in large part, the same people the offshore renewables industry needs. Most roles are highly transferable, requiring short-term upskilling rather than wholesale retraining.
'That is not a marginal advantage. It is a structural head start that few other regions in the UK or Europe can match. What the region does next will determine whether it captures that opportunity or watches it pass.”
'Offshore energy roles in the North East of Scotland typically pay up to twice the regional average income. That means the economic consequences of each job lost extend well beyond the individual. Replacing that value requires multiple job creations elsewhere in the economy, and that is before accounting for the supply chain effects. The priority must be to prevent these losses in the first place, not simply to manage the consequences after the fact.
'The ‘Goldilocks zone’ is real and the window is closing. Once that skilled workforce disperses, it does not come back. The North East of Scotland has the assets, the geography, and the people to make this transition work. What it needs now is the investment, policy alignment, and coordination to match.
'The real risk is that if experienced workers leave the region before renewables can offer comparable opportunities, the skills base will erode. The supply chain capacity would also reduce, and when offshore wind projects arrive at scale, the workforce to deliver them may no longer be here. We are very much entering a make-or-break period.'
Although the stakes are local, the consequences reach far beyond Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. The North East of Scotland hosts around one in four of the UK's 154,000 offshore energy jobs, contributes approximately £18.4 billion in Gross Value Added (GVA) annually, and sits at the geographic centre of the biggest offshore wind build-out in European history, with more than 70% of ScotWind leasing bids located within 100 nautical miles of its coastline.
Over 90% of the skills held by the region's offshore energy workforce are directly transferable to renewables and adjacent sectors, the report finds.
The report calls for a coordinated approach, combining private capital to build capability and scale with public investment to reduce uncertainty and give investors the certainty to commit, enabling the pace the transition demands.
Professor de Leeuw added: 'The region holds the foundations: a skilled and mobile workforce, an established supply chain, competitive costs, strong transport links, and a growing concentration of regulatory and policy bodies in the North East of Scotland.
'The next five years will not simply shape the region's energy sector. They will define the North East of Scotland’s economy for a generation.'
Suzanne Sosna, director of Accelerating Energy Transition at Scottish Enterprise, said: 'This report highlights the importance of maximising the opportunity for the North East to benefit economically from the transition to renewable energy. Building on the region’s world-class skills and decades of proven expertise, Scottish Enterprise is committed to helping the region accelerate investment, growth and also support diversification.
'The North East is a key focus for us. We will seize on the opportunity articulated in the report working in partnership through the North East Scotland Investment Zone, innovation hubs, the Energy Transition Zone, port and harbour investments, and university-led innovation.'
Click here for the full report
Source: Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University (RGU)
