Failure to approve Rosebank and other planned North Sea oil projects would cost the UK £10.8 billion in economic value over the next decade and mean 3,330 fewer jobs are supported every year, according to a major new report.
The analysis by Public First, commissioned by North Sea producer Adura, puts a price on the economic impact of leaving major licensed projects undeveloped.
It finds that approving Rosebank and other planned fields would support £35.3 billion in UK GVA between 2026 and 2035, compared with £24.5 billion if key oil projects do not go ahead – a difference of £10.8 billion.
The number of jobs supported would fall from an average of 13,860 a year to 10,530, meaning 3,330 fewer jobs across the UK economy every year.
The findings highlight the scale of the economic opportunity still available from the UK North Sea, with forthcoming decisions on Jackdaw and Rosebank providing an early test of the UK Government’s wider approach to investment in the basin.
The report highlights that if Jackdaw and Rosebank proceed alongside necessary investment, Adura is expected to support around 9,540 jobs a year over the next decade. In a more restrictive future where neither development proceeds, that falls to around 7,100 jobs a year – meaning the two projects alone are worth more than 2,400 jobs annually.
The difference for the public finances is also significant. The analysis shows around £7.5 billion in tax revenues over the next decade where Jackdaw and Rosebank proceed, compared with £3.4 billion where they do not – a difference of £4.1 billion.
All policy scenarios modelled in the report are in line with the Labour Party’s 2024 manifesto commitment to honour 'existing exploration licences and to manage existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan'.
In his foreword to the report, Professor Nick Butler, Visiting Professor at King’s College London and a former Senior Policy Adviser to Gordon Brown, said: 'Rosebank and Jackdaw are great projects of which we should be proud.
'Their development along with the continued development of the other resources which remain in the UKCS is an essential contribution to maintaining the energy security on which British consumers – business as well as households – rely.'
Neil McCulloch, CEO of Adura, said: 'This report puts a clear price on leaving viable North Sea resources from existing licensed fields in the ground.
'Failure to approve Rosebank and other planned developments would mean billions of pounds less economic value for the UK and thousands fewer jobs supported every year.
'Jackdaw and Rosebank are two of the most important investment decisions now facing the UK. Their impact will be felt well beyond the projects themselves, across the supply chain, the wider economy and the public finances.
'The UK North Sea still represents a substantial economic prize. Decisions taken now will help determine how much of that value, employment and investment is retained here in Britain.'
More than half of the jobs supported by Adura are estimated to be in Scotland, and the report also finds that the company supports between 11 and 15 jobs across the wider economy for every person it employs directly, reflecting the scale of the North Sea supply chain.
It warns that continued falls in investment could eventually push that supply chain towards a 'tipping point', as specialist firms leave the market and the UK loses skills and industrial capacity needed for oil and gas as well as emerging industries such as offshore wind, carbon capture and hydrogen.
The wider analysis finds that a more supportive approach to the North Sea could sustain an average of 13,860 jobs a year and generate £35.3 billion in economic value between 2026 and 2035.
Under the most restrictive future modelled by Public First, this falls to around 7,100 jobs a year and £15.2 billion – a difference of 6,760 jobs and £20.1 billion.
Source: Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce
