By Ben Ward, Market Intelligence Manager, OEUK
The North Sea Transition Authority’s (NSTA) March 2025 revision to the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) production projections indicates a further downward adjustment. Between the February 2023 and March 2025 projections we have seen a reduction of 135.3 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) for the period 2025-2050. This is equivalent to approximately 920 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe). Conversion factor: 1mtoe = 6.842mboe
The source data is available via the NSTA’s published projections: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-insights/insights-and-analysis/production-and-expenditure-projections/.
This adjustment can be attributed to the fiscal, regulatory and policy uncertainty that has been seen in the UK over the past few years, instead of changes to the UKCS’s geology. The implications for the UK’s energy balance, fiscal receipts, and industrial output are material. OEUK modelling indicates the removal of 920 million boe from UKCS production corresponds to a reduction of £50.6 billion in gross value added (GVA) to the UK economy, based on historical GVA figures generated by Experian for OEUK and production figures.
The current projections from the NSTA indicate production could fall to 620,000 boe/day by 2030. The revised production outlook implies increased reliance on imported hydrocarbons. OEUK estimates that by 2030, up to 80% of UK oil and gas demand could be met by imports. This shift increases exposure to global market volatility and geopolitical risk, with implications for price stability and supply chain resilience.
To mitigate the economic and industrial impact of declining production, OEUK recommends fiscal reform by 2026, acceleration of electrification, support for domestic production, and infrastructure longevity planning. These measures are detailed in OEUK’s 2025 Economic Report.
Under current fiscal conditions, the sector and the UK economy face a potential loss of £41 billion in capital investment and £137 billion in GVA between 2025 and 2050, when compared to ending the EPL in 2026. If fiscal reform were introduced in 2026 – specifically replacing the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) with a successor mechanism – the sector could unlock an additional 2.5 billion boe in production, £12 billion in tax revenue, £137 billion in GVA, over the next 25 years. These figures can be found in OEUK’s “Impact of UKCS Fiscal Policy on UK Economic Growth 2025” paper.
Source: OEUK
