New report from Aurora Energy Research finds that increasing Scottish onshore wind deployment after 2030 could reduce energy system costs by £5bn a year
- The analysis commissioned by the Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum shows the current pathway in the Clean Power Action Plan risks higher costs, delayed investment, and missed opportunities for UK energy security
- The report comes at a key moment as the UK prepares to finalise its Strategic Spatial Energy Plan – the long-term framework that will determine the country’s energy mix into the 2030s and beyond
A new independent report by leading energy market analysts Aurora Energy Research, commissioned by the Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum SOWDF has found that rebalancing a share of planned Scottish offshore wind towards Scottish onshore wind after 2030 would deliver a lower-cost energy system and accelerate progress towards energy security.
The report finds that increasing deployment of Scottish onshore wind would reduce average total system costs by up to 6% between 2030 and 2050, driven by a 21% reduction in policy costs and a 13% reduction in balancing costs. This equates to savings of approximately £5 billion per year compared to the current pathway that is proposed in the government’s Clean Power Action Plan (CPAP).
The analysis from Aurora highlights significant concerns with the CPAP, which effectively imposes a de-facto ban on new Scottish onshore wind projects post-2030 that could lead to higher system costs.
The Forum argues that this was a major error in the CPAP, with the Aurora report indicating that Scottish onshore wind remains one of the fastest, most reliable, and most cost-effective sources of new generation capacity.
The publication of the report comes at a key moment for the Scottish onshore wind sector with the Secretary of State, Ed Miliband, due to decide on a preferred pathway for the UK’s first Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP), which is co-sponsored by the Scottish Government and will set out a blueprint for the UK’s energy production after 2030.
It follows recent research from the CBI that net-zero-related industries, including onshore wind, are already a major economic driver in Scotland, supporting more than 105,000 jobs and contributing £10.2 billion to the economy.[1]
Commenting on the report launch, CEO of Belltown Power and SOWDF member, Paul Hewett, said:
'The Aurora analysis is clear – Scottish onshore wind represents one of the fastest, most cost-effective and most reliable ways to deliver clean power at scale.
'An SSEP which doesn’t include a material increase in Scottish onshore wind ambition would lock UK consumers into the higher long-term costs of alternative generation options, just at a time when government is trying to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.
'As the government prepares to finalise the SSEP, we urge DESNZ to consider Aurora’s analysis and ensure its chosen pathway fully considers the potential for Scottish onshore wind deployment – unlocking billions in investment, supporting good jobs, reducing bills and strengthening the UK’s energy security.'
Nick Civetta, Project Leader at Aurora Energy Research, added:
'Aurora has evaluated total system costs under two scenarios: a base case aligned with the Clean Power Action Plan and Gate 2 connection reform capacity targets, and a counterfactual in which a share of proposed Scottish offshore wind capacity is rebalanced towards onshore.
'Our analysis indicates that prioritising Scottish onshore wind development beyond 2030 could deliver material consumer savings of £5bn p.a. between 2030 and 2050 relative to the current pathway, driven primarily by lower CfD levy and balancing costs.
'Importantly, Scotland's 15.4GW onshore planning pipeline - against just 1.3GW in England & Wales - provides a credible foundation for delivery at this scale.
'The counterfactual also maintains a substantial Scottish offshore wind buildout, consistent with market-consensus deployment expectations, while reducing cost to the consumer and supporting a balanced Scottish wind industry.'
The full report from Aurora can be viewed here.
[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7599zez4rxo '
See also: SOWDF position paper on Aurora report
Source: Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum
